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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.